Reaction to China’s Peace Plan Reveals West’s Lack of Respect (April 2023)

China released a 12-point Ukrainian position paper, calling for peace talks and urging all parties to avoid nuclear escalation and end attacks on civilians. However, Western leaders largely dismissed the plan, arguing that China does not have the international credibility to act as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This objection is problematic because it reveals to China that the United States and its Western allies do not “take it seriously” in mediating international disputes. China can interpret this cautiously concerning Taiwan, as the United States also believes it has the right to dictate terms in the Pacific and the Taiwan strait. Also, it reveals that the United States fails to appreciate the national interests of its counterparts, failing to negotiate objectively or understand positions different from its own. As a growing competitor to the United States, China has every right to be concerned. 

The Chinese peace plan was harshly criticized by US officials who noted the growing ties between China and Russia, which dominate headlined in the West. The plan warned against the threat or use of nuclear weapons but also expressed concern against “expanding military blocs” and requested that all sides “avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions.” The paper preceded and followed up statements made by Chinese officials who openly criticized the United States for heavily arming and sending military equipment to Ukraine. However, much of the equipment sent so far has been destroyed. Therefore, the weapons shipments have only increased the loss of life and lowered the potential for eventual peace. This fanatical shipment of weapons, combined with NATO’s continuous expansion, brings China to criticize Washington’s geopolitical positions despite Russia’s obvious incursion into a neighbor’s territory. 

Russia and China have also vowed to strengthen military-technical cooperation in response to NATO’s attempts to build up its potential in the Asia-Pacific region. This degree of collaboration has revealed that China and Russia are aware that the West will likely dismiss China’s “red lines”, just as it has dismissed Russia’s. China's failure to condemn Russia's war in Ukraine, and its cooperation with Moscow in general, continues to irritate the West. Washington wishes to present the conflict in Ukraine as a zero-sum conflict, which the entire planet views as a clear act of aggression. However, this has somewhat failed since Russia has continued to maintain neutral, if not warm, relations with many countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. In truth, the dividing point of China’s plan, which has significantly accelerated the international order’s shift to an arrangement that places the West against the rest, is that China and many of its allies prioritize national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity over liberal international values. The conflict in Ukraine has also led China to focus on its interests despite the West’s arguments. 

China has a significant role in the global energy market and is becoming increasingly important as a critical player in the trade of Russian oil derivatives. As the world’s third largest exporter of oil derivatives, India has emerged as a crucial intermediary in the supply chains of oil trade routes, allowing Russian crude oil to be refined and processed in territories outside of the EU and then sold on the European market. China, a major oil consumer and a significant player in the global economy is likely to benefit from the continued trade of Russian oil despite EU sanctions. While the EU and other Western countries have attempted to restrict the import of Russian oil derivatives through various means, including the use of sanctions and restrictions on pricing, these efforts have been unsuccessful. As a result, China can take advantage of the continued trade of Russian oil derivatives and may even be able to negotiate better prices for its imports due to the disruptions caused by Western sanctions. This could give China a significant advantage in the global energy market and contribute to its overall economic growth and development. Furthermore, China’s strong economic ties with Russia could benefit from increased cooperation in other areas, such as technology and infrastructure development. This could further strengthen China's position as a global superpower and increase its influence in the international community.

The central question remains – if Beijing disagrees with Washington enough, will it face economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military support for Taiwan, as Russia has faced in Ukraine? The Ukraine conflict has put China in a difficult position as it seeks to maintain positive relationships with Russia and the West to benefit its national interests. China has been cautious about providing military aid to Russia, as it risks damaging its relationships with other countries, including those in Europe. However, China has provided supplies to Russia, which has led to concerns about the potential for increased Chinese support of lethal supplies for Russia in the future.

Overall, the situation in Ukraine highlights the complex and dynamic nature of global power politics as countries seek to balance their relationships with Russia, China, and the West. The conflict has also highlighted hybrid geopolitical warfare, with the West using a range of tactics to pressure Russia and China, potentially playing a role as Russia's ally. As the situation evolves, we will likely see further developments and shifts in global power dynamics.